Facing Uncertainty

Facing Uncertainty

There are many different flavors of fear and many different triggers for those fears. One of the most common drivers of a fear response comes from uncertainty. Not knowing what might happen, either in the moment or in the long term, frequently leads to anxiety of one kind or another. Uncertainty so thoroughly derails us that research has shown people actually prefer bad news to uncertainty. 

Archy de Berker, a researcher at the University College London, describes it this way:

“Uncertainty is difficult for the brain because it makes it hard to figure out what to do [and] what decisions to make. I suspect stress—both the arousal component and the unpleasantness of it—help us deal with uncertain situations possibly by making us more alert, and also incentivizes us to avoid them.” [source]

I’ve certainly felt those feelings. Not starting a project I’m passionate about because I don’t know if it will succeed, not trying new foods because I don’t know if I will like them, not booking a trip because I worry something will come up. The even deeper layer is the avoidance which can happen unconsciously. Noticing when we turn away unconsciously provides great opportunities to identify fears. But what happens when we can’t avoid uncertainty? 

Right now we’re collectively experiencing a very visible uncertainty trigger: COVID-19. This pandemic in progress is pretty hard to ignore. Not knowing if we, or those we care about, will become seriously ill breeds intense uncertainty. The experience of shelter-in-place, emotional impact of social distancing, financial effects, and lack of clarity on how long this will all go on or what happens when it ends are all heightening the mystery. It adds up to a massive uncertainty cocktail for each of us. What do we do about this? 

It starts with accepting we’re feeling it. It’s perfectly rational to feel uncertain when the outcome cannot be known. I personally find it hard to acknowledge negative feelings like uncertainty. For quite awhile I told myself that my natural optimism meant I wasn’t worried by this uncertainty. But how to explain my struggles to focus, the random shortness of breath at the grocery store, the urge to check on family members at unusual times? I had to accept those feelings existed to begin moving past them. 

To move forward I needed to break down what makes uncertainty scary. Uncertainty means not knowing what will happen next. Ironically, this is the state of our lives all the time. Usually we ignore it. A lot of the uncertainty in our lives gets covered up by the routine nature of risks and the difficulty in picturing them. Every time we get in a car there is a possibility of a car accident. But getting in a car is routine. We’ve done it thousands of times without getting in an accident. And while we get the idea of accidents we don’t generally think about the details. Without a strong mental image, and with a consistent experience of safety, that uncertainty doesn’t stop us. I am not a psychologist by any means, but to me it seems most  of the time we operate under some mix of the optimism bias and illusion of control that lead us to presume a negative event won’t happen to us or we can control the odds of it happening. But when confronted with immediate examples of something dangerous the availability heuristic kicks in. When that happens, the bad thing feels more real, and we get overwhelmed. COVID-19 has broken our routines and created a clear picture of the bad outcomes. So what do we do?

First, let’s talk about routines. At the moment it can feel as though everything we do has been disrupted. Being at home isn’t the same when you never get to leave. Going to the store isn’t the same when you have to wear a mask and gloves. Seeing a friend and not being able to go within six feet of them goes against the habits of human connection we have built through the years of our lives. I am certainly having moments of feeling totally unmoored. In the midst of so much disruption I find myself focusing only on what is different. The office where I work is closed, the groups I exercise with aren’t meeting, the improv classes and shows that were part of my weekly routine aren’t happening, so much of my life is not running normally. But, it turns out, so much in my life has not changed. 

The way I have found to fight through that fear is to focus on what is stable. When I stop and look there are a surprising number of things that have not changed. I am able to continue working (very gratefully from home), I am living in the same place as before, I still live with my loving partner and dog. My daily morning routine is the same series of things as I wake up, check my phone, go to the bathroom, get dressed, have a glass of water, exercise, take the dog around the block, feed the dog, shower, eat breakfast. I might do some of those things a little differently but I am still doing those things. My family are still my family and my love for them has not changed one bit. My friends are still my friends, we just connect in different ways. When you find yourself thinking of all the big uncertainties out there stop and think about at least one thing that has not changed. Give yourself permission to start small. Once you find one thing add another. You can even cheat by deciding to make something the same. Set your alarm for the same time each day, find someone to have a daily “good morning” text with, eat the same lunch every Tuesday. You get the idea. It may feel hard at first but you can do it. Remember, there are no wrong answers. Treat it like a game and you will be amazed how many things you find. The feeling of disruption will still come at times but you will know that it is only a part of your experience. 

What about the bad things that could happen? How are we to ignore them? Getting sick or dying, losing jobs, these things are happening to people. I certainly find myself worrying about these things. They could happen to us or those we love. Seeing images from hospitals, driving past closed stores, or reading about long lines at food banks all make those potential problems feel very near. To suggest we just forget them is ridiculous. We must consider them as possibilities. A bit of healthy concern motivates preparation for if those bad things happen and sensible actions to prevent them. But if thinking about that reaches the point of obsession it becomes an impediment. Obsessing will leave you without the energy to prepare, the rational thinking to prevent, or the good health to be strong when needed. When thinking about the bad possibilities begins to overwhelm you it is again time to focus on your present reality. 

As many bad possibilities as there are, you only need to use your energy working through those directly impacting you. Start by asking yourself simple questions: What is happening right now for me? Am I somewhere safe? Am I sick? Are my loved ones sick? As I type this (April 12, 2020) there are ~550,000 reported cases of COVID-19 in the US. That means roughly 327 million Americans DO NOT have COVID-19 so your momentary odds are pretty good on that front. I constantly remind myself that right now we are collectively doing a very hard thing (distancing) to avoid a very bad thing (mass infections) but that the very bad thing is not actually happening to most of us. If there is something you are worried about then consider if you can take any action. That could mean making sure you have some extra food at home, checking on a neighbor you are worried about, or making a donation to a group supporting those in need. Once you have asked those basic questions and identified there are no additional actions you need to take, begin to work through the same kinds of check-ins you did with routines. Start with what’s real in the moment. 

What might this mental practice look like? Well, the picture on this post is from a walk I went on two weeks ago. We were in the second week of shelter-in-place. All of a sudden things felt very real. After a day in the house tingling with stress, we needed to take the dog for a walk. Once we got outside I was able to take a breath and really look at my reality (reminder - the outdoors and physical movement are key tools in shifting energy, use them!). In that moment I realized I was healthy, safe, and with those I love. The sun was shining. The dog was sniffing. Nothing bad was happening to me. That moment was the reality of my life. All the bad things were future possibilities not present realities. I focused on that reality instead of all the things that “could” happen. I found myself breathing easier and worrying less. Since then I have made that a daily practice. It does not mean I never worry. But when I worry I ask if there’s anything additional I can do to alter the situation and then refocus on what’s happening in the moment. 

Remember that fear based on uncertainty is about future projection run amok. Remember that should something bad happen you can handle it. We may be socially distant but we are not alone. Despite all the dire predictions of social disorder, what I have seen in the past month are endless examples of people supporting one another. Trust that you are strong and do not fear asking for help when you need it. Your community will step up for you. 

Writing about this really helped me to solidify my thinking about how to work with uncertainty. I hope it has been helpful to you too. I second guess my own writing constantly so if you enjoyed this let me know. If you have any suggestions on what I can do better send me those too. Research is clear that I am better off getting the bad news that my writing needs to improve than sitting and wondering what you think. Just by reading this you have become part of the global community working to reduce fear in the world. Thank you. 

Be safe, be kind, be brave. 

Dave